The calamity in Sikkim caused by the Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) may only be an indicator of the danger such an occurrence poses to the lives of three million Indians living in sensitive areas of the six Himalayan states/UTs - J&K, Ladakh, Himachal Pradesh, Sikkim, Assam, and Arunachal Pradesh.
The first global study of such locations, conducted in February by an international team led by scientists at the United Kingdom's Newcastle University, revealed that India and Pakistan account for one-third of the total number of people globally exposed to such GLOFs. The study, which was published in the journal Nature Communications, also highlighted that the population's exposure to GLOFs rises as one moves away from a glacial lake.
GLOFs occur when a natural dam containing a glacial lake bursts or when the lake's level rises unexpectedly and overflows its banks, causing devastating downstream destruction.
There are 7,500 glacial lakes in the Himalayan Alps. Sikkim has roughly 10% of these, with nearly 25 of them classified as vulnerable. According to India's Glacial Lake Atlas of the Ganga River Basin, a total of 4,707 glacial lakes have been mapped from their source to the foothills of the Himalayas, encompassing a catchment area of almost 2.5 lakh square kilometers.
These numbers demonstrate the vulnerability of people living downstream, particularly when climate change causes glacial lakes to overflow due to rising global average temperatures.
"Himalayan flash floods are becoming increasingly linked to climate change." Rising temperatures cause glaciers, which hold large volumes of water, to melt. When glaciers melt quickly, it causes glacial lake outbursts and severe rains, exacerbating the risk of flash floods in the region, as observed in Sikkim," said Anjal Prakash, clinical associate professor at ISB's Bharti Institute of Public Policy.
According to him, the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) publications have consistently warned of the Himalayan region's vulnerability to climate change impacts, such as the increased danger of flash floods caused by glacier melt and shifting rainfall patterns. "These reports highlight the critical need for climate action to mitigate these risks and protect vulnerable communities in the region," said Prakash, who also contributed to the IPCC reports as a scientist.
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